This week, russia reacted with massive missile attacks on civilian objects in various cities of Ukraine to the international community's decision regarding the supply of weapons and the European development of Ukraine. Instead, in the information field of Ukraine, there has been an increase in caution regarding the possible direct participation of Belarusians in Russia's war on the territory of Ukraine. All this was discussed by OPORA analysts and a guest during the traditional Friday online discussion "War Speeches" on July 1.
OPORA's analyst Andrii Savchuk notes that, unfortunately, there were many tragic events this week because Ukraine suffered from massive missile attacks. He suggests that in this way russia shows resentment against Ukraine's obtaining official EU candidate status or official confirmation of the provision of HIMARS multiple rocket launchers. In particular, according to the cynical statements of russian political leaders, a direct hit on a shopping center in Kremenchuk was a strike on a military hangar storing Western assistance. Moreover, putin once again publicly changed the goals of their "special operation". Now they appeal to the security of russia itself in the context of NATO opposition and the "liberation" of the Donbas territories.
On the other hand, as the analyst notes, the most relevant topic in the Ukrainian information space is the potential land invasion of the Belarusians. Of course, the dissemination of such panic information among the population of the border regions can be an element of IPSO aimed at creating an informational hysteria. However, given the fact that the Secretary of the National Security Council Oleksii Danilov talks about the possibility of such a threat and informs about checks of combat readiness at the border, probably we must not completely ignore such scenario. Although according to Danilov, about 75% of Belarusians have no desire to join russia's war in Ukraine, this does not concern the country's leadership. It should be understood that, in fact, Belarus is currently occupied.
As OPORA's analyst Anatolii Bondarchuk notes, Belarus can open a second front for two reasons. The first one is to bind the Armed Forces of Ukraine and prevent them from transferring troops to other areas of the front. The second one is to prevent the supply of Western weapons.
"Belarus actually gave its territories as a bridgehead for russian troops. They use it as their military base. They transfer their troops there with the help of the railway, and a contingent of the russian army was also stationed there. On February 24, russian troops entered the territory of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. Also, we know that russian planes launch missile strikes from the airspace of Belarus on the territory of our country. But at the same time, the Belarusian army did not cross the border of Ukraine, so now we can say that Belarus did not fully enter this war. However, let's say, it seriously contributes to the russian aggressors," Anatolii Bondarchuk said.
Vytis Jurkonis, lecturer at the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences of Vilnius University, and project director of Freedom House in Vilnius believes that it is an open question whether the kremlin is really forcing Belarus to fully enter the war. "I still tend to think that they are satisfied with the current situation, when in a certain way Belarus is Sancho Panza, a weapon-bearer for the kremlin. When the territory of Belarus is such a transit yard, where you can be fired upon, where military planes can fly, take a break, where those who were wounded are treated, and prisoners of war also passed through Belarusian territory. Therefore, in this regard, it should be clearly stated that the Belarusian regime is not a neutral player, it is an accomplice in the crime and war against Ukraine," Vytis Jurkonis said.
According to him, the deterrent factor is, in particular, the warning that in the event of the official entry of Belarus into the war, either the Belarusian army can join the Kastus Kalinovski regiment, which is fighting on the side of Ukraine, or the fight against Lukashenka's regime may begin altogether. Another factor for the kremlin may be that they potentially do not want to lose the territory of Belarus from under their influence. Therefore, not including the Belarusian military in the war will contribute to the fact that although after the victory of Ukraine, russian troops will be forced to withdraw from the territory of Ukraine, they will then be able to stay in Belarus.
"For now, they freely use the territory of Belarus. The Belarusian regime also votes as russians need on various international platforms there. And in this regard, I think that the kremlin is not necessarily so harshly forcing the Belarusian regime to directly join the war. Despite the fact that, in general, they are now complicit in the crime against Ukraine," Vytis Jurkonis says.
As analyst Andrii Savchuk notes, the idea that Belarusian servicemen would simply change into Russian uniforms and thus be involved in military operations against Ukraine was also popular in Ukrainian informational space. And in the event of an attack by the russian army from the side of Belarus, these disguised russian soldiers can potentially be left in the rear in the occupied territories, for example, at checkpoints, for the sake of presence and control. "When the russian federation already tried to move towards Crimea, they did not occupy a significant amount of territory and bypassed it. This, in fact, played a bad joke with them about the supply routes—there were burning gas trucks, memes with tractors, and so on. And most of the Belarusians are actually ready to be left at checkpoints, to be left to perform the functions currently performed by the russian guarrd in the Kherson region. That is, to have 20,000 such tail workers", Andrii Savchuk said.
"I do not rule out that this is already happening. But in general, it must be said that this already happened in 2014. We know that there were Belarusians who fought in Donbas on both sides. There were also those who fought for independent Ukraine, they helped even then, even before the Kastus Kalinovski regiment was created. But there were also those who were on the kremlin side. In this regard, one could also see the double standards of the Belarusian regime. Despite they made coffee for Angela Merkel at the Minsk negotiations, in reality, the position was still on the side of the Kremlin. And the fact that the site of these negotiations was in Minsk—it was the kremlin's territory, it was by no means a neutral territory—it is not Finland, not Switzerland, not Austria, etc. In this regard, it seems to me that we should have taken off our rose-colored glasses about the essence of the Belarusian regime and its hypocrisy a long time ago. Therefore, in this regard, I am not surprised by such interpretations. In fact, this has already happened, especially on a personal basis. I am sure that there were those who went to fight, to earn money—purely pragmatic, without any ideology. Unfortunately, for 20 years, the Belarusian regime did nothing to defend its independence and sovereignty. On the contrary, it increasingly sold itself to the kremlin regime. We are currently seeing all the consequences of this," Vytis Jurkonis noted.
According to analyst Andrii Savchuk, there are two public opinions about Belarusians in Ukraine. The first position was voiced by the Secretary of the National Security Council Oleksii Danilov, that Lukashenka's regime is criminal and does not represent Belarusians; therefore, the majority of Belarusian population is not to blame. The second position insists that one way or another Belarus is involved in the war—shelling from that territory, military bases, and logistics for soldiers, which, in fact, are directly done and contributed to by tens of thousands of Belarusians. Therefore, the Belarusian population is guilty and bears collective responsibility. In addition, they also do nothing to overthrow the Lukashenka regime, except for those Belarusians who are fighting as volunteers against russia in Ukraine.
Vytis Jurkonis stated that certainly, the Belarusian regime is not equal to the Belarusian people and vice versa. And it can be seen from sociology and numerous facts that the Belarusian people are resisting the war. "I treat Belarusian citizens with respect. I respect the help, that they, despite their personal misfortune and tragedy, are trying to help Ukraine and say very clearly that the perpetrator is the Belarusian regime, the accomplice is the Belarusian regime," Vitis Yurkonis said. Therefore, in his opinion, it is not entirely honest and correct to talk about the collective responsibility of Belarusians. "All this hypocrisy, balancing, trying to divert attention is a typical Lukashenka policy. Unfortunately, there were politicians in Ukraine as well, who did not believe that an attack from Belarus was possible. Unfortunately, this happened, and the Belarusian regime allowed it. But I think that the citizens of Belarus tried to expose all this, to show it. And it's not evening yet. As for the protests in Belarus, I think they have died down because there is a great deal of terror against dissidents. But the protest sentiments did not go anywhere," Vytis Jurkonis.
He also believes that the democratic forces of Belarus are now more united than ever and they unequivocally support Ukraine. However, sometimes there are attempts to artificially separate them, which may indicate the influence of russian narratives.
"When there will be negotiations regarding Ukraine, and they will eventually take place, Belarus must not be forgotten under any circumstances. That is, russian troops cannot remain on the territory of Belarus, because it would be the same threat to Ukraine, as well as to the Baltic countries and so on. Independence, sovereignty, and democracy of Belarus are the security issues of Ukraine," Vytis Jurkonis says.
Regarding the dangers of the organization of the "Suval corridor"—a hypothetical land passage along the border of Poland and Lithuania about 100 kilometers long, which could connect the territory of Belarus with the Kaliningrad region of Russia—the expert notes that everyone is aware of the level of threats and is ready for anything. He believes that a much more realistic scenario of what is happening in Ukraine is when the Belarusian regime allows russian troops to use its territory. "There is an awareness that there is some vulnerability in this corridor, it has been talked about for many years. That is why there are NATO troops in all the Baltic states—there are British, Canadians, and Germans, whose number will now increase. We have a NATO air police that defends the airspace. And we should also not forget that there is Poland, which has serious military power. And they are also interested in this space being safe," Vytis Jurkonis said. And that is why, since 2014, Lithuania has been doing its homework on defense strengthening. Yes, conscripts have appeared, the defense budget has increased and it already exceeds the requirements of NATO countries for 2% of the budget for this area, and the infrastructure is being improved to facilitate the rotation and permanent stay of NATO troops on the territory of the country.
Vytis Jurkonis also notes that, if we talk about the subjectivity of Belarus, it would be weak in Europe as early as 2020 or it would not exist at all if it were not for the democratic forces and Svitlana Tykhanovskaya. Because the Belarusian regime did the opposite in this respect, reaching various agreements with russia. And it was not a question of sovereignty, but only a question of price.
Analysts of the Civil Network OPORA carefully monitor russia's official position regarding the war it started on the territory of Ukraine. Daily short analytical notes can be found on our new online tool "War Speeches". The weekly results of analysts are discussed during online streams on Fridays at 15:00. We hope that this tool will help the Ukrainian authorities, their international partners, and other stakeholders in planning steps to counter the occupying state. In addition, all users can read about the reaction of the leaders of the civilized world to the statements and provocations of the occupying state on a single website. We have already scrolled through all the news for you and analyzed them in the general context..