Russia's strategies in the newly occupied territories this year and in the occupied territories since 2014 are different. In particular, they are now well aware of the need to quickly and severely sever ties between the people and the territory controlled by Ukraine in all possible ways. However, the Ukrainian state may also receive insufficient information that they will not be left to fend for themselves if they move as internally displaced persons and that they will not be prosecuted as collaborators for trying to survive in the occupied territories. OPORA analysts and invited experts spoke about this during the traditional weekly broadcast "Occupied" on Monday, June 13.
OPORA's analyst Oleksandr Neberykut believes that the application of the law on collaborationism should be differentiated depending on the territories and circumstances: "We see an increase in criminal responsibility for collaborationism. But we are imposing this legal framework on the whole of Ukraine - on the free part and the temporarily occupied territories, not very differentiating the circumstances of how this law can work. And how should it work on the free territories of Ukraine, where it is really necessary to severely suppress and counteract any cases of collaborationism, and the temporarily occupied territories, where opportunities for maneuver, opportunities to evade being accused of collaborationism, are very little for many residents. Of course, there is another story about the problem of collaborators who have now assumed responsibility for planting and promoting the "russian world". But we would like to talk about both - about those who really must be brought to justice, but first of all still about ordinary citizens who have to deal with it somehow."
According to him, last week, there were many statements from the self-proclaimed russian proteges in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions about when the legitimization of these occupied territories could take place. Kiriyenko, the deputy head of putin's administration, visited the Kherson region, so they at least decided on the format and instructed people to prepare pseudo-referendums. "In fact, this is a key countdown that we are anticipating a possible format of legitimization - either by the Crimean scenario or possibly in some other way. But what interests us in this regard is the beginning of forced integration of these territories into Russia. We have seen the tracks of this integration in recent weeks in terms of certification, the introduction of educational programs in schools, and a complete communication cut-off. Now all this continues in the same way, but what I would like to note is what should worry both the Ukrainian power now and us all. This is continuing complete isolation of the territories: Kherson, Melitopol, Mariupol," Oleksandr Neberykut said.
According to the analyst, repressive practices continue in these regions. The residents cannot leave these territories freely, they are all victims of filtration. For example, in Mariupol, the format of filtering has changed. It used to take place in the city, but now you have to go outside the city, sign up for special buses that are sent for filtering, and wait in these camps for an unknown amount of time. And it's unknown whether you would be branded those who can't live on this territory and, respectively, you would be deported to russia or imprisoned,
The process of legalizing robbery also began last week. The week before last, the occupying authorities issued so-called decrees on maintaining registers of state and private property to nationalize both. That is, if earlier the main target audience of all these repressive "integration" measures were representatives of local authorities and state employees, now the focus is on private business.
Representatives of russian personnel, for example, in the law enforcement agencies, began to transport their families to the occupied territories. And now, the format of resistance has changed - there are no more mass public actions because it has become quite dangerous.
"For me, this is, to some extent, also a sign that the russian federation does not rely on local collaborators. There is a large pool of them, but the rf prefer visitors - all the staff that is brought here," Oleksandr Neberykut said.
Human rights activist Oleksandra Dvoretska named the main differences in trends in the newly occupied territories compared to russia's occupation of Ukrainian territories in 2014. "The first differences we can find are the territories. A huge number of people found themselves in this occupation. This is such a challenge for a large number of people at once. The second is the issue of restricting the possibility of leaving. Because both in Crimea and the East, it was dangerous to leave, but there was no situation of complete absence of a possibility to leave, and there were no such deportation challenges. We can say that some people who lived in the newly occupied territories were subjected to forced deportation and are currently in russia. And not everyone has the opportunity, resources, and enough information to return to the controlled territory of Ukraine. This is a new challenge. And probably the last difference for me is the scale of the destruction. Still, there were no active hostilities in Crimea - there was a military operation and occupation, but its nature was slightly different. And active hostilities took place in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2014, but it's simply impossible to compare them with what is happening in Mariupol or Severodonetsk and other cities," Oleksandra Dvoretska said. According to her, the situation in the newly occupied territories is different because russia's strategies are different. But the most important thing for all people who find themselves in the occupation is survival.
According to Dmytro Lubinets, Chairperson of the Committee on Human Rights, Deoccupation and Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories, National Minorities and Interethnic Relations, all processes in the newly occupied territories are much faster. "In my opinion, the main difference is the legal component. In ORDLO, the russian federation held a so-called referendum and, through this referendum, for all these years, has been trying to tell the Western world that. 'It's not us, it's the people who decided to create some incomprehensible Donetsk and Luhansk republics there, and we only help them.' Here, as we see, the russian federation does not bother with these processes. In the Kherson region, in Kherson in particular, they tried to launch this process, but it's impossible to sell it to the whole world when people go to mass pro-Ukrainian rallies here," Dmytro Lubinets said. According to him, they were also looking for ways to hold such a pseudo-referendum in the Zaporizhzhia region, but without the regional center, it didn't make sense. They tried to do something in the Roziv district, which borders the Donetsk region. They gathered unintelligible people in one room and instructed a former deputy of the district council to lead this meeting. She announced the alleged joining of the so-called "DPR". That is, they do not know what to do with it in the context of a legal mechanism.
According to Dmytro Lubinets, the Internet, television, and mobile communication are also essential aspects. The tactics are simple - they immediately cut everything off and start their propaganda, which is trying to show that Ukraine has given up these territories. Another trend is the re-registration of businesses that would otherwise be nationalized immediately. They work on business as quickly and with as much force as possible. Also, they form the occupying power and the police - they bring protégés from russia and are not even ashamed to show it. For example, in Melitopol, they very quickly opened a branch of the migration service of the russian federation. If, for instance, in the newly occupied Volnovakha in the Donetsk region in March, they hung the flag of the so-called "DPR", in the newly occupied Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia region, they already used the flag of russia. "From the beginning, they tried to show that Russia came and occupied these territories. There is no intermediate process. I still believe that there was an intermediate process in Crimea in the form of "green men", and then they hung the russian flags. "DPR/LPR", as we see, was an intermediate stage - everyone understood that it was russia, but it was through the prism of these formations. In contrast, in the newly occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. By the way, let's not forget that the same thing is happening in the Kharkiv region - they hang the flags of the russian federation immediately," Dmytro Lubinets said.
Another difference, according to the MP is schools. They try to start the learning process as quickly as possible. For example, in Volnovakha, three weeks passed from the moment of occupation to the moment of launching the educational process for the media picture.
Mass seizure of Ukrainian textbooks, destruction of Ukrainian cultural monuments, renaming of streets. Of course, there is also terror and intimidation - activists and members of their families are abducted, and there are cases of executions for Ukrainian symbols.
"We must also understand for ourselves that if, for example, in previous years, it seemed that the worst thing that could happen is some kind of legalization in the format of a referendum, accession, recognition of the independence of these pseudo-republics, and so on. This seemed the worst thing that could happen because it is a long-running story, which is difficult to play back without military effort. Now, from what is happening, it seems to me that how it all will be legalized - this is not a question at all. That is, the worst thing that can happen is what is happening now, in fact, with their approaches," Oleksandr Neberykut said. According to him, there is a simplified impression of what the strategy of people's behavior in the occupation might look like: 1) to leave (which is a unrealistic option now), 2) to resist. The analyst also gave vivid examples of such heroism: out of 60 schools in Kherson, only two agreed to teach under the russian program, and of all retirees who remained in Mariupol, about 10,000 refused to receive a pension in rubles. But both of these scenarios are extreme.
"Crimean Tatars have a principle called 'living in Crimea'. It is to live in Crimea as long as you can stay in these territories. And in fact, it is a political position - to live in their homeland. And let's be honest - we want to return the land for ourselves and those there. And Crimean Tatars, for example, continue to resist for eight years. But we have a situation when people in the zone of active hostilities often refuse, even under fire, to leave their homes. They do not evacuate and thus complicate the work of servicemen who conduct hostilities. Here we can say that this is not exactly the same situation as with the Crimean Tatars, who show their position and remain in the Crimea. Therefore, it seems to me that there is no general answer as to what should people in the occupied territories do - leave or stay there. Everyone has their own strategy," Oleksandra Dvoretska said.
The expert also emphasizes that, given the filtration measures, it is now most dangerous for pro-Ukrainian citizens to leave the newly occupied territories. And the only thing that russia has not been able to destroy in the territories occupied since 2014 is human ties. After all, before the pandemic, 1.3 million people crossed the demarcation line every month. Therefore, supporting practices that preserve these ties with the occupied territories is necessary.
According to the expert, the working business supports the occupation administration and local residents, who should have access to food and critical infrastructure. But if we talk about taxes paid by a business to the occupation administration, then there are questions about this activity. "We must support the people who found themselves in the occupation and support those who left the occupied territories and became internally displaced persons," Oleksandra Dvoretska said.
Dmytro Lubinets emphasizes that the time when a person could leave safely has passed: "The russian federation, again, came to the conclusion that the residents of ORDLO really came en masse, to see how Ukraine is developing. They came for social benefits, for pensions, and for some support, but the result was that their children entered Ukrainian universities. The russians understood that these ties should be broken as quickly and harshly as possible. That is why, in my opinion, they created this network of filtration camps. You can now travel only to the territory of the russian federation or to the temporarily occupied Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, and you must pass the filtration. Moreover, if at first, the filtration took several hours, recently we have been receiving information that the filtration is carried out very carefully for several days."
The MP also shared his observations from visits to the Donetsk region, in particular Vuhledar, where shelling continues, there is no communication, but many people remain there. In particular, they believe that since they have no relatives in other regions of Ukraine, they have nowhere to go. "The person must choose by themselves. Maybe we do everything we can, but we can't tell people how much we support them, what are the programs for resettlement, that we give some extra payments, give food packages," Dmytro Lubinets said. He also noted that the forced open mobilization of men was already taking place in the newly occupied territories. Therefore, men must be aware of such a threat while remaining in the occupied territories.
According to expert Oleksandra Dvoretska, we have a lot of issues that have not been resolved in 8 years and still exist. For example, the registration of civil status acts for residents of the occupied territories is still done through the courts. "Although many believe that documents are the last issue when there are security problems, in fact, people keep in touch with the state because of the passport. No wonder the first thing the russian federation does is sowing territory with its documents. Therefore, it is important that young people have the opportunity to access Ukrainian documents, and be able to submit such applications online, i.e. we must develop some digital solutions," Oleksandra Dvoretska said.
Also, in her opinion, it is important not to resort to populist decisions and not to complicate the process of liberating these territories in the context of the fact that people are collaborating. Of course, collaborators must be held accountable for cooperating with the occupation administrations and committing war crimes, but it's important not to extend the list of responsibilities simply for remaining on the territory. "russian federation has a feudal attitude to the people. It came and thought that it gets the territory together with people, and it could do anything with them. I think Ukraine must have only one answer, which is the careful documentation of human rights violations, gathering these facts, individual responsibility, not inflating the Criminal Code and not depriving people of citizenship because they survive in their own way in the occupied territories," Oleksandra Dvoretska said.
According to the MP Dmytro Lubinets, now it seems that our tactics of returning people are new articles in the Criminal Code. Because legally, anyone who stays there can be prosecuted. For example, if the person applied to the occupation authorities for a certificate, etc. We still need to work on this. Another important point is to keep in touch with them, including financially. "I would not like us to save money. We all understand the current situation, but, firstly, it is local, not the state budget, and secondly, all the mayors told me today: 'We have money. We can pay the salaries to teachers, kindergarten teachers, and anyone for years. But please give us the opportunity to do it,'" Dmytro Lubinets said.
"We can maintain these links in the medium to the long term, keep these ties, and instead not offer solutions that can really lead to unpredictable consequences in terms of the reaction of people who instead of helping receive criminal liability in the form of a 10-year term or huge fines for teaching, if not under russian programs, then under those that can be assessed as such," Oleksandr Neberykut said.