Recently, russia initiated “referendums” to be held on September, 23–27, in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson oblasts. This decision came as a surprise to the occupation administrations and to russian politicians who comment on the course of the war. This is evidenced by the analysis of their public statements. 

It can be assumed that the decision to call referendums came up spontaneously in the kremlin, without consulting the occupation administrations, against the background of a successful counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in several sections of the front. 

Bound for annexation: russia announced the dates of pseudo-referendums

On September, 19, 2022, the russian occupation troops and administration intensified their activities to initiate illegal referendums in the occupied territories due on September 23–27, 2022. In the kremlin's view, a fake referendum would create “legal grounds” for annexation of these territories by russia.

The acceleration of the related processes is directly linked to the successful counter-offensive effort of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kharkiv region and in the South. It is also related to the fear of losing the quick gains of armed aggression during the first months of the full-scale war. Pseudo-referendums are totally null and void from the legal point of view. They will not be recognized in civilized countries but they will still create new challenges for civilians and for the government of Ukraine. 

On September, 21, vladimir putin made a statement about holding a fake vote in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia Oblasts, and announced a partial mobilization. All things considered, including also the recent decisions of the russian parliament to amend the Criminal Code of the russian federation, the kremlin is preparing for the escalation and continuation of armed aggression against Ukraine.

After the mock vote and illegal annexation, russia plans to declare these territories under their jurisdiction. Accordingly, any counter-aggressive actions of Ukraine will be considered an attack on the territory of russia, as dmitriy medvedev said. 

"Referendum" is a surprise for collaborators...

However, it seems that the calling of fake referendums on September 23–27 was a surprise for the russian puppets at the TOTs, who now have to become the main actors in this performance. 

First, on September 19, the public chamber of the so-called "DPR" requested from denis pushilin to immediately initiate a referendum on the "republic's" being included as part of russia. However, the head of the "Chamber," oleksandr koffman, said that the best option for holding it will be on November, 4, when russia celebrates the Day of people's unity. 

"It seems to me that the referendum held this day (November 4 — ed.) will clearly show the people's unity with russia of Donbas, and of the liberated territories — Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions," said koffman.

The statement of the head of the LPR public chamber, oleksiy karyakin, came even more articulate. On September, 19, this "chamber" on initiated a similar request to the "republic's" chief, leonid pasichnyk. According to karyakin, it was too early to talk about the date of the "vote" because such issues shall not be decided overnight. 

Secondly, in all their public statements, pushilin and pasichnyk indicated that it was worth holding "referendums" only after the capture of the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by russian troops. The "DPR" chief claimed this on May, 25 and on August, 11, and the head of "LPR" said this on August, 9.

The situation changed dramatically on September, 20, when both leaders of the self-proclaimed republics synchronously announced that "referendums" would be held in these territories on September 23–27. At the same time, the heads of the occupation administrations of Zaporizhzhya and Kherson Oblasts also made similar statements.

These dates also came as a surprise for them because, on September, 5, for example, the deputy head of the occupation administration in Kherson Oblast, kiril stremousov, claimed that the region had paused preparing the "referendum", which was likely to take place on September 11, consistently with the voting day in russia. To days later, on September, 7, stremousov made another statement, where he said that Kherson oblast was preparing for the referendum due on November, 4. 

Zaporizhzhia Governor, yevhen balitskyi, said on September, 13, that the date of the referendum is not known yet because the situation on the front does not allow to hold it. However, although there were no significant changes for the better for the russian army in a week, the position of the balytskyi's government changed crucially.

Earlier, in June and July, the occupiers did not reject the idea of a "referendum" but kept avoiding the problem of dates. They talked about the beginning of September or the beginning of autumn — apparently, referring to the above-mentioned September, 11, when municipal elections were held in russia.

As for remote voting, a month ago the occupying administrations rejected this idea but now they have changed their position and say that it will be possible in the "referendum".

… and for russian politicians 

Analyzing the statements of russian politicians and leaders of the Crimean occupation administration, we can also conclude that the dates of the "referendum" of September, 23-27, have not been considered before. Since June, russian politicians have called the three possible dates of the "vote". Thus, at the beginning of the summer, the deputy of the state duma and a member of the negotiation group, leonid slutskyi, said that a pseudo-referendum could take place as soon as this summer. At the same time, a spokesman for the russian president said that "voting" is possible "provided that the security of the voting is ensured and the shelling stops from Ukrainian side." However, as we can see, HIMARS are still doing their job but the position of russia has changed significantly. 

Other potential dates for the "referendums" were the September,11,  and November, 4. In particular, the Secretary of the general council of "united russia," andrii turchak, recently (on September, 7) claimed that it was possible to hold them on November, 4. 

On the other hand, on September, 9, the head of the occupation authorities of Crimea, serhii aksionov, said that the annexation of the occupied territories is possible without "referendums" but on September, 20, he changed his mind and supported the idea of a fake vote on September, 23–27.

 

Specially for Ukrainska Pravda