As a result of the full-scale aggression, russia seized a number of territories of Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv Oblasts, and new communities of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The aggressor state has already undertaken to establish an illegitimate system of governance in an attempt to consolidate itself in the occupied territories.

As of now, we can talk about the following approaches of russia to the management of the captured territories of Ukraine:

  • illegal "DPR" and "LPR" formations delegate their representatives to manage new seized communities of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, declaring the "ownership" of the entire territory of the two regions to the self-proclaimed formations;
  • in the captured territories of Zaporizhzhya, Mykolaiv,  Kherson, and Kharkiv regions, the occupiers announced the "appointment of heads of military and civil administrations." At the same time, even from the point of view of propaganda, it is not completely clear who, how, and why "appointed them";
  • the occupiers hold illegal campaigns under the guise of a meeting of citizens on the "temporary accession" of certain communities of Zaporizhzhya, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv regions to the "L/DPR" or Crimea, respectively;
  • russians are preparing illegal actions in the guise of a referendum to separate the territories of Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, and Kharkiv oblasts from Ukraine and announce threats to "affiliate" them to russia;
  • so-called officials in the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea illegally establish economic, social and business ties between the occupied peninsula and the territories of Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, declaring plans to restore the "single economic complex". These actions are reinforced by statements of certain MPs of the State Duma about russia's plans to create from Ukrainian territories the so-called Crimean Federal District;
  • information is shared about the occupiers' plans to conduct actions simulating the vote on the annexation of the "L/DPR" formations to russia within the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

In the temporarily occupied territories, there have been no definitive signs yet to indicate the occupiers’ holistic or universal approach to governance. This can be explained by the fact that russia had more ambitious plans to seize Ukraine and was preparing for a more serious political scenario.

In particular, the SBU reported that in various regions of Ukraine they detained organizers of the so-called "federal Ukraine." Their idea was to separate individual regions and proclaim "independent" entities.

Based on propaganda statements on the eve of a full-scale war, russia planned to launch a pseudo-political process between "regional states" after capturing a large part of Ukraine, depriving the country of its agency.

As of April 2022, according to public reports, there can be seen two possible strategies of russia. 

The first scenario involves the continuation of "patchwork" initiatives, when in some communities it is not known who "self-determines" about temporary joining to the "L/DPR" or to Crimea, or about "free-navigating life" without a clear announcement of the political future for these territories. Such a scenario could potentially preserve a negotiating track that russia is still interested in. It allows the aggressor state to "set  back" these illegal actions and evade any direct responsibility for them. At the same time, the occupier can continue to establish "ties" of the new captured territories with russia, Crimea, and the L/DPR terrorist groups. 

Another scenario – a "new quasi-legal reality" – involves a fake referendum on the "declaration of independence" of the territories or even about their accession to russia.

The second scenario means the death of negotiations between Ukraine and russia, as already stated by the President of Ukraine, and the emergence of another reason for intensifying the pressure of sanctions on the aggressor state. However, given putin's inadequate attempts to keep raising the stakes, the likelihood of such a scenario is high.

The analysis of the perspective of pseudo-referendums from the point of view of national and international law does not make much sense. No one in the world recognizes steps that are based exclusively on the military force and coercion of the occupier.  

However, their goal is to create fictitious grounds for russia itself to declare the impossibility of liberating these territories.

The math is simple here: if russia says that this is their territory (or recognized by it), everyone has to accept this fact de facto, under the threat of a new escalation. In fact, we are talking about the same strategy that was applied on the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. At first, rf "recognized" the "L/DPR" within the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and then stated that it was impossible to conclude an agreement with Ukraine without recognizing the "new" reality not only in Crimea, but also in Donbas.

The 2022 developments show the links of the previous Crimean and Donbas scenarios to the illegal PR campaigns which russia labels as "referendums". They were preceded by the creation of a new political reality in the seized territories by provoking a large number of refugees and IDPs, political persecution, torture and filtering — in fact, the cleansing of the population.

International law and Ukrainian law do not contain any leads for russians to implement their criminal intent.

The Constitution of Ukraine and the Law of Ukraine "On the All-Ukrainian Referendum" prohibit any referendum revising the integrity and inviolability of the territory of Ukraine within the existing borders, and the extension of Ukraine's sovereignty throughout its territory is established by the Constitution of Ukraine, not to mention the prohibition of elections and referendums during the legal regime of martial law.

At the same time, the Guidelines on Referendums of the Venice Commission clearly state that the use of referendums shall be subject tothe legal system as a whole. In particular, a referendum cannot be held if the Constitution does not provide for it. 

As mentioned above, it does not make any sense to analyze the extent to which a perpetrator is versed in legal matters. It is important to apprehend him and bring him to justice.  

Copying the legal nuances of the planned robbery makes sense only if it is considered as a systematic and consistent manifestation of the destruction of the rights and freedoms of Ukrainian citizens. Our fellow citizens are forcibly deprived of the right to participate in the governance of their state, as guaranteed by the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the 1966 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, and other international instruments. True restoration of constitutional rights of citizens of Ukraine who find themselves in the temporarily occupied territories can only be possible after their liberation. At the same time, according to international law, the occupation of the territory does not endow the occupier with any rights to it, and the occupied country does not lose sovereignty over its territory. 

Together with the statement of uselessness of fake referendums, it is important to offer guidance to the citizens of Ukraine on how to act in the difficult conditions of the occupation:

  • first, Ukrainian citizens should avoid, as much as possible, any forms of participating in illegal PR campaigns of the occupiers. However, it is certainly worth taking into account the actual security conditions and the consequences of coercion.
  • secondly, citizens who will participate in the organization and conduct of fake referendums (for example, commission members) should be aware of their prospect of being deprived of liberty for 5 to 10 years, with restrictions on the right to hold important positions.

There are also recommendations for Ukraine's foreign partners.

It is important not only to declare the null and void nature of such fake referendums but also to resolutely reject the aggressor's attempts to confront them with the "fact" of the emergence of new circumstances.

A practical counteraction to illegal actions of russia should be a warning to citizens of any countries about the inevitability of personal sanctions and other responsibility for participation in the organization of such actions or "monitoring" them. This will at least stop the practices of engaging the downed "political pilots" to russia’s criminal acts.

Oleksandr Kliuzhev, specially for the Ukrayinska Pravda