The results of the pseudo-referendums that Russia is preparing to hold on the annexed Ukrainian territories will be null and void, but will significantly affect the situation in Ukraine and abroad. A fictitious vote will allow Russia to declare the end of the illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories and demand that the world recognize it or at least come to terms with it, in particular through nuclear blackmail. The world must urgently counter the Kremlin's plans by increasing military aid to Ukraine, recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, and significantly strengthening sanctions. There is no reason to believe that one day Moscow itself will decide to end the war it has started.
Officials in Russia announced the start of preparations for pseudo-referendums in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories. The date of their holding has not yet been announced, but it is hinted that they will take place in the Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts on September 11, 2022. In the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the Russians hope to hold fictitious referendums if they conquer both regions completely.
Before holding fake referendums, the Russians are trying to control the lives of people in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories as much as possible. They are doing this by the means of the information blockade and the spread of propaganda, the severing of economic ties with the rest of Ukraine, the forced passportization of residents and the creation of a system of law enforcement agencies.
To a large extent, Russia began to prepare the ground for the current illegal actions when it held pseudo-referendums in the occupied Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. However, if in 2014 Russia was first hiding its aggression, imitating "people's initiatives", now it is acting openly. The Russian Federation again, like in 2014, plans to confront the world with the fact of illegal annexation and hopes not to receive an answer to the violation of international law. Will international organizations and the civilized world live up to Russia's expectations?
If, after the pseudo-referendums, Ukrainian territories are forcibly annexed to Russia, this will allow the Kremlin to blackmail Ukraine that the "new regions" cannot be attacked. The Russian leadership will probably claim that it will be able to use nuclear weapons to defend all its territories, including illegally occupied ones, if the Ukrainians try to liberate them. Through nuclear blackmail, Moscow will put pressure on Western countries to engage in dialogue, de facto recognize the accession of Ukrainian territories to the Russian Federation and reduce support for Ukraine.
Not only does Vladimir Putin want to completely destroy Ukraine, but also has he his own ideas about the restoration of the Russian Empire. Since Russia borders many countries in Europe (and also actually controls Belarus), the successful holding of pseudo-referendums and the lack of an effective response to them from other countries will only strengthen Russia's aggressive ambitions and make diplomatic and political levers of influence on the Kremlin impossible. Countries to which Moscow has potential territorial and so-called security claims (for example, Moldova, Kazakhstan, the Baltic states, etc.) will become especially vulnerable.
Partner states should increase military aid to Ukraine and put more pressure on Russia with sanctions so that Ukraine can liberate the occupied territories.
Russia should be recognized as a state sponsor of terrorism. To do this, according to US law, the Secretary of State must determine that the Russian government has repeatedly supported acts of international terrorism. So far, only Cuba, North Korea, Iran, and Syria are recognized as state sponsors of terrorism. After assigning this status, powerful sanctions are automatically applied to the state (restricting US foreign aid; introducing a ban on the export and sale of defense products; controlling the export of dual-use goods, etc.), as well as imposing sanctions on countries that continue to do business with the state sponsor of terrorism.
In addition, it is necessary to promptly update the lists of personal sanctions, applying them against Russian officials involved in the illegal integration of Ukrainian territories into Russia and the preparation of pseudo-referendums.
Russia should be excluded from international organizations. In particular, it is necessary to consider depriving Russia of membership in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), since the Kremlin's desire to destroy the system of international law does not correspond to the organization's mandate and mission. Also, the discussion about the possible deprivation of Russia's membership in the Security Council of the United Nations should reach a practical level.
In addition, international organizations and partner states should not try to resume negotiations with Russia while it continues to occupy Ukrainian territories. The policy of unilateral concessions will only worsen the situation and lead to the growth of the conflict and the expansion of the geography of confrontation.
Partner countries should increase military aid to Ukraine. In order to gain a strategic advantage on the battlefield and begin the liberation of the occupied territories, the Ukrainian army urgently needs heavy weapons in the appropriate quantity and quality. First of all, we need rocket launcher systems and long-range artillery systems according to NATO standards and ammunition for them, anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems, armored vehicles, and unmanned aerial vehicles.
Ukraine should systematically inform other states and international organizations about specific steps taken by Russia to prepare and hold pseudo-referendums. At the same time, Ukraine should propose a list of new international sanctions against Russia caused by its preparations for fake referendums.
Crimes of collaborationism related to the preparation of pseudo-referendums should be documented and investigated, but it is important to refrain from prosecuting civilians if they interacted with the occupiers forcibly in order to survive.
Citizens of Ukraine in the occupied territories should try to avoid any form of participation in the preparation and holding of fictitious referendums. In a separate material, Civil Network OPORA formulated clear recommendations for residents of the occupied territories regarding their behavior during the fake referendum.
Potential organizers of a pseudo-referendum should remember that according to Ukrainian legislation, organizing fictitious referendums can result in imprisonment for 5 to 12 years, loss of position, and, probably, property. International sanctions may also await those who prepare and hold fake votes.
The pseudo-referendums that Russia is preparing to hold in the occupied Ukrainian territories are against international law and the Constitution of Ukraine. Their results will be legally null and void, but without a clear and decisive response from the world community, they will allow Russia to scale up its atrocities. This will create new threats for Ukraine, Europe, and the rest of the world. There is no reason to believe that one day Russia itself will decide to end the war it has unleashed in Ukraine: it must be stopped.
For comment, please contact:
Olga Aivazovska, Head of the Board at Civil Network OPORA
+38(063)617 97 50