How many Ukrainians we used to have before February, 24
Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
Introduction
The emigration of a huge number of Ukrainians due to the full-scale Russian invasion has become an economic and humanitarian challenge not only for Ukraine but also for partner states that received millions of forcibly displaced persons.
Almost 500 days have passed since February 24. Some Ukrainians who had left abroad have returned home, others have integrated into the society of a new country, but there are also those who are leaving Ukraine today. Based on the data we processed, the number of present-day emigrees today is growing.
It is now clear that the homecoming of millions of Ukrainian citizens will require significant efforts from the Ukrainian authorities and partner states alike. First of all, it is about creating favorable security, humanitarian, and economic conditions. It requires precise numbers of Ukrainian citizens staying abroad today and in their homeland. Another more demanding challenge is to estimate the number of people residing in different regions of Ukraine.
In order to find answers to these questions, Civil Network OPORA regularly lodged requests to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Social Policy, and other authorities. In addition, we have processed data from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
Despite the considerable amount of data, it is impossible to determine exactly how many Ukrainians are presently staying abroad. However, it can already be stated that this number continues to grow, including due to Russia’s regular terror acts. Therefore, it is likely that the population of Ukraine is closer to 35 million people than 40 million.
How many Ukrainians we used to have before February, 24
The demographic situation is one of the most difficult challenges Ukraine has faced since the restoration of independence in 1991. Optimistic ads of the 1990s of “We are 52 million” (which even then was somewhat far from the fact) now looks like a figure from another reality. The predominance of death rate over birth rate, mass emigration, especially of young people, a low birth rate, and a difficult socio-economic situation made depopulation a typical feature for Ukraine.
It even came to the point that no one can say precisely how many people used to live in our country before the full-scale invasion. Thus, according to government estimates, 37.3 million people lived in Ukraine (without temporarily occupied territories) as of December 1, 2019. On the other hand, as of February 1, 2022, the State Statistics Service estimated the number of the available population (excluding the temporarily occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea) as 41.1 million people. The annual reduction was more than UAH 420,000 (!) persons.
In addition, as of January 1, 2022, according to Eurostat, the population of Ukraine was 41 million people. Instead, according to the World Bank, in 2021, 43.8 million people lived in Ukraine. The same data was provided by the United Nations. As you can see, even by the most modest estimates, the population of Ukraine has decreased by more than 8 million people in 30 years.
Unfortunately, the full-scale Russian invasion accelerated depopulation and caused a real demographic catastrophe: tens of thousands of dead and wounded, millions of internally displaced persons and emigrants. If we discard for a second the atrocities and horrors of the war, the Ukrainian authorities will face a really important question: who will live in Ukraine after the victory?
Within this issue, we could single out more than a dozen smaller problems that are already on the agenda: housing reconstruction, addressing the needs of internally displaced people, the return of internally displaced persons from abroad, stimulating birth rates, combating early mortality, etc. In addition, another increase in the flow of emigrants might occur after the full opening of the borders, which are now closed for most men. We are talking about “family reunification,” labor migration, rehabilitation, etc.
What do we know about Ukrainian immigrants now?
Who and how counts the migration of Ukrainian people out of the country after Russia’s full-scale invasion
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
In response to the request from the Civil Network OPORA, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that as of June 21, 2023, 8,177 mln Ukrainians were staying abroad. Compared with the data as of February 1, 2023, or for incomplete 5 months, this number increased by almost 188,000 people.
|
Date |
Number of Ukrainian people abroad |
|
01.02.2023 |
7 989 027 |
|
29.03.2023 |
8 054 849 |
|
21.06.2023 |
8 177 638 |
More than half of Ukrainians stay in three countries only: Poland — 22%, Germany — 14.6%, and the United States — 11%. Also, many citizens of Ukraine found refuge in the Czech Republic — 7.9%, Italy — 5%, Canada — 4.9%, Spain — 3.4%, and Israel — 2.75%.
Almost 63% of Ukrainians staying abroad are adults, 22% are children under 18 years of age. The age of another 15% of people is not specified.
It should be mentioned that only 1 out of 16 Ukrainians abroad is on consular registration. As of June 21, 2023, there are slightly more than 493,000 such citizens, and 88% of them are adults.
This information means that Ukrainian people currently staying abroad comprise 20% of the pre-February, 24, 2022, population of Ukraine.
The State Border Guard Service
One of the main sources of data for assessing the number of Ukrainians who left the country is the information of the State Border Guard Service on border crossings. Civil Network OPORA lodged three requests to the State Tax Service and received border crossing statistics from the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion until November 30, 2022, April 1, 2023, and May 1, 2023.
Certainly, the data does not allow to determine how many citizens exactly left Ukraine, given the possibility of multiple border crossings, the return to their homeland of Ukrainians who had been abroad before February 24, 2022, and problems with recording a mass departure to neighboring countries in the first three weeks after the beginning of a full-scale Russian invasion.
And yet, even based on the data of the State Border Guard Service only, we can document a totally negative trend in the departure of Ukrainians. In particular, as of May 1, 2023, the State Border Guard Service recorded 18.52 million departures from Ukraine and 15.84 million entries. The difference is 2,686 mln people. In April 2023, the negative migration balance increased by 31,000 crossings. However, such an increase is insignificant compared to the truly massive departure in December 2022 – March 2023. In these 4 months alone, the negative balance increased by more than 1.8 million people. The reason for this outflow of the population may be related to blackouts and massive Russian shelling in November 2022 — January 2023.
|
Date |
Migration balance |
|
30.11.2022 |
-839,400 |
|
01.04.2023 |
-2,655,553 |
|
01.05.2023 |
-2,686,731 |
As of May 1, 2023, Ukrainians most actively crossed the border with Poland – almost 20 million departures and entries. This is more than the number of border crossings with all other countries bordering Ukraine. According to the Foreign Ministry, Poland and the neighbouring Germany hosted the largest number of Ukrainians.
Table. The number of border crossings from 24.02.2022 to 01.05.2023 according to the State Tax Service
|
Border section |
Total Crossings |
Inbound to Ukraine |
Outbound from Ukraine |
Migration balance |
|
Hungary |
4 405 629 |
2 142 325 |
2 263 304 |
-120,979 |
|
Slovakia |
2 283 454 |
1 044 561 |
1 238 893 |
-194,332 |
|
Romania |
4 469 787 |
2 105 445 |
2 364 342 |
-258,897 |
|
Poland |
19 936 060 |
9 042 429 |
10 893 631 |
-1,851,202 |
|
Moldova |
3 259 835 |
1 494 669 |
1 765 166 |
-270,497 |
|
Russia |
5 868 |
5 569 |
299 |
5 270 |
|
Belarus |
4 038 |
3 972 |
66 |
3 906 |
Furthermore, Ukrainian statistics, for objective reasons, does not account for people who stayed under temporary occupation and were forcibly moved to the territory of Russia or Belarus. From there, they reached other states to receive shelter but the State Border Guard Service could not record their departure. However, according to official data, a small number of border crossings with Russia and Belarus is still available. In fact, these are the only countries which border documented more entries to Ukraine than departures.
Also, the SBGS data does not account for illegal border crossings, in particular by men of 18–60 years. Thus, as of the beginning of March 2023, the SBGS spokesman Andriy Demchenko reported that since February 24, 2022, border guards detained more than 11,000 trespassers who tried to get round the checkpoints. More than 4,000 people tried to leave Ukraine with fake documents or in another illegal way.
Mobile Operators
An important source of information about the current number of residents of Ukraine can be data from mobile operators. This information was already used by the Ukrainian government in 2019 to take count of the population. Therefore, Civil Network OPORA lodged a request to the State Communications Commission and received data on the number of Kyivstar, Vodafone and Lifecell mobile operator SIM cards.
Thus, as of June 6, 2023, the number of active mobile network cards was slightly more than 48.3 million. Kyivstar accounted for 24.3 million cards, Vodafone — 15.4 million, Lifecell — 8.6 million. The largest number of active cards was recorded in Kyiv — 5.5 million, in Dnipropetrovsk region — 4.6 million, and Lviv region — 3.65 million.
The March report of the National Commission for the Regulation of Communications (NCEC) indicated that on average, there are 143 cards per 100 residents of Ukraine. Therefore, we can assume that there are no more than 33.8 million people in the unoccupied territory of Ukraine.
If we take into account the data from the same report on the average indicators of mobile communication provision in the regions, then excluding the population of the occupied and unoccupied parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, as well as the occupied Crimea, the population will be 31.5 million people. However, again, it is an assumed and rather provisional indicator.
In this case, the most populated city will be Kyiv — 3 million inhabitants, Dnipropetrovsk region — 2.97 million, Kharkiv region — 2.66 million, and Lviv region — 2.45 million. The lowest number of residents will be in Kirovohrad region — 1.15 million, Ternopil region — 1.09 million, and Bukovyna — 1.06 million.
Also, NCEC reports a significant reduction in the number of cards over the past 18 months. Thus, if we compare December 31, 2021 and the same day in 2022, then the reduction is 12% or 6.6 million cards. Besides, we can see that in the first five months of 2023, the number of cards also decreased by about 1 million.
Accordingly, regarding the data on the provision of mobile communication per 100 inhabitants, we can assume that the number of residents of Ukraine as of June 6, 2023, compared to December 31, 2021, decreased by over 7 million people.
At the same time, the assessment of the total number of available population in December 2021, according to the NCEC, will be virtually identical to the data of the State Statistics Service.
|
Date |
Number of mobile cards |
Availability of mobile communication per 100 inhabitants |
Estimated number of residents |
|
31.12.2019 |
54,843 |
42.78 |
|
|
31.12.2020 |
53,978 |
41.71 |
|
|
31.12.2021 |
55,926 |
41.15 |
|
|
31.12.2022 |
49,304 |
34.48 |
|
|
06.06.2023 |
48,327 |
~143 |
33.80 |
In addition, we need to emphasize that in their report, the NCEC notes that the reduction in the number of active SIM cards is due to the “full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, the inaccessibility of mobile communication networks in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and the reduction in the use of the services of national mobile operators due to migration of the population in order to seek refuge outside the country.”
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
UNHCR is the leading organization dedicated to protecting the rights and welfare of refugees, asylum seekers and stateless persons worldwide. The way to implement the mandate of this organization is to collect, analyze and disseminate data on the situation of the relevant population groups. In particular, it regularly publishes information about the number of Ukrainians who stay abroad.
Thus, as of June 26, 2023, according to UNHCR estimates, there were 5,977 mln Ukrainian migrants in Europe. Outside Europe, there are still almost 362,000 people. Such information is generated based on published data or the information received from the authorities of more than 40 countries on the number of Ukrainian immigrants they host, including in Russia and Belarus.
However, today Ukraine does not know how many of their citizens stay on the territory of the aggressor countries. Moreover, Ukraine cannot distinguish how many of them left there voluntarily, and how many were forcibly deported by the occupation troops. Therefore, the number of 1.3 million citizens of Ukraine on the territory of Russia and Belarus is questionable. That is why it can be assumed that as of June 26, a little more than 5 million Ukrainian migrants stay abroad, of which almost 4.7 million are in European countries. At the same time, according to UNHCR, the largest number of Ukrainians stay in Germany (1.07 million). Second goes Poland (994,000), the third — the Czech Republic (345,000).
Number of migrants from Ukraine in European countries according to UNHCR:
|
Country |
Data relevance |
Recorded number of Ukrainian IDPs |
Ukrainians registered in national protection programs |
|
Germany |
25.06.2023 |
1,072,705 |
958,590 |
|
Poland |
26.06.2023 |
994,775 |
1,618,785 |
|
Czech Republic |
18.06.2023 |
345,880 |
528,045 |
|
United Kingdom |
20.06.2023 |
205,700 |
590 |
|
Spain |
25.06.2023 |
183,980 |
183,980 |
|
Italy |
02.06.2023 |
183,685 |
183,685 |
|
Bulgaria |
27.06.2023 |
162,935 |
162,935 |
|
Romania |
25.06.2023 |
136,075 |
136,075 |
|
Moldova |
25.06.2023 |
110,855 |
7,980 |
|
Slovakia |
25.06.2023 |
103,490 |
119,505 |
|
Austria |
26.06.2023 |
99,590 |
99,590 |
|
Netherlands |
26.05.2023 |
94,415 |
94,380 |
|
Ireland |
26.06.2023 |
86,575 |
86,575 |
|
Lithuania |
02.06.2023 |
77,545 |
77,490 |
|
Belgium |
20.06.2023 |
71,070 |
71,070 |
|
France |
12.31.2022 |
70,570 |
67,230 |
|
Switzerland |
23.06.2023 |
65,435 |
84,775 |
|
Portugal |
04.06.2023 |
56,995 |
58,275 |
|
Sweden |
06.06.2023 |
56,165 |
56,165 |
|
Finland |
23.05.2023 |
55,600 |
56,750 |
|
Hungary |
26.06.2023 |
52,335 |
36,315 |
|
Estonia |
05.06.2023 |
48,590 |
50,625 |
|
Norway |
05.06.2023 |
48,280 |
48,280 |
|
Turkey |
15.06.2023 |
45,820 |
4,955 |
|
Denmark |
29.05.2023 |
41,155 |
41,305 |
|
Montenegro |
26.06.2023 |
38,540 |
14,180 |
|
Latvia |
12.31.2022 |
38,145 |
47,940 |
|
Georgia |
09.05.2023 |
24,180 |
605 |
|
Greece |
30.04.2023 |
23,780 |
24,985 |
|
Croatia |
23.06.2023 |
22,390 |
23,305 |
|
Cyprus |
04.06.2023 |
18,185 |
18,680 |
|
Slovenia |
26.06.2023 |
8,790 |
9,550 |
|
North Macedonia |
11.06.2023 |
7,620 |
5 |
|
Luxemburg |
13.06.2023 |
5,890 |
5,890 |
|
Azerbaijan |
12.06.2023 |
4,735 |
95 |
|
Serbia and Kosovo |
05.06.2023 |
4,530 |
2,065 |
|
Albania |
07.06.2023 |
3,800 |
30 |
|
Iceland |
30.04.2023 |
3,010 |
2,975 |
|
Malta |
11.06.2023 |
2,145 |
2,145 |
|
Liechtenstein |
14.06.2023 |
640 |
640 |
|
Armenia |
21.06.2023 |
595 |
595 |
|
Bosnia and Herzegovina |
11.06.2023 |
175 |
15 |
|
Total |
|
4,677,370 |
4,987,650 |
It must be highlighted that UNHCR does not publish information in an open data format, which complicates data processing. In addition, the Office uses data provided by national governments (hence information from Russia and Belarus). This can also explain the fact that the methodology and method of disclosure of information periodically changes and applies more to displaced persons in European countries.
Civil Network OPORA tried to find out the dynamics of change in the number of Ukrainians abroad. In our calculations, we did not take into account the data provided by Russia and Belarus for the lack of trust for them because often on the UNHCR portal the number of Ukrainians in the status of displaced persons in these two countries is allegedly equal to the number of Ukrainians who crossed their border.
Based on UNHCR data, it can be established that over the past year the number of Ukrainian people in Europe has increased by more than 725,000 people. It reached its peak in March-May 2023 (almost 5.3 million people) and is now gradually decreasing. It mostly accounts for Poland, where over the past six months the number of migrants from Ukraine has decreased by more than 550,000 people.
Dynamics of the number of Ukrainians in Europe according to UNHCR
|
Date |
Recorded number of Ukrainian IDPs, million people |
|
01.06. 2022 |
3.56 |
|
21.06.2022 |
3.95 |
|
10.08.2022 |
4.37 |
|
30.08.2022 |
4.58 |
|
04.10.2022 |
4.78 |
|
25.10.2022 |
4,88 |
|
01.11.2022 |
4.92 |
|
15.11.2022 |
4.97 |
|
06.12.2022 |
4.96 |
|
27.12.2022 |
5.03 |
|
24.01.2023 |
5.12 |
|
21.02.2023 |
5.22 |
|
28.03.2023 |
5.30 |
|
11.04.2023 |
5.29 |
|
16.05.2023 |
5:37 |
|
26.06.2023 |
4.67 |
Another important source of data is information on border crossings published on the UNHCR website. Without taking into account Russian and Belarusian data, we must highlight that from February 24, 2022 to June 26, 2023, 20.64 million departures from Ukraine and 14.34 million entries were recorded.
Accordingly, it can be assumed that since February 24 last year, about 6.29 million people left Ukraine and have not returned. Moreover, this number has been growing since mid-October 2022.
Table. Dynamics of the number of crossings of the Ukrainian border, according to UNHCR
|
Date |
Departure from Ukraine |
Entry to Ukraine |
Balance |
|
01.08. 2022 |
8,311,687 |
4,279,441 |
-4,032,246 |
|
01.09.2022 |
9,667,942 |
5,456,558 |
-4,211,384 |
|
01.10.2022 |
11,266,645 |
6,450,006 |
-4,816,639 |
|
01.11.2022 |
11,995,013 |
7,357,971 |
-4,637,042 |
|
01.12.2022 |
13,047,394 |
8,182,720 |
-4,864,674 |
|
01.01.2023 |
14,202,190 |
9,129,827 |
-5,072,363 |
|
01.02.2023 |
15,328,015 |
9,983,965 |
-5,344,050 |
|
01.03.2023 |
16,243,995 |
10,668,587 |
-5,575,408 |
|
01.04.2023 |
17,252,689 |
11,559,295 |
-5,693,394 |
|
01.05.2023 |
18,342,070 |
12,528,786 |
-5,813,284 |
|
01.06.2023 |
19,464,399 |
13,408,160 |
-6,056,239 |
It is also worth pointing out that our assessment based on UNHCR data does not take into account Ukrainian people who were made to leave through Russia’s territory to seek asylum in other countries. It is also impossible to estimate the number of Ukrainians forcibly deported to the territory of the Russian Federation.
Although, according to the governments of European states, the number of internally displaced persons from Ukraine in their countries is decreasing (mostly, at the account of Poland). The dynamics of border crossings indicates that Ukrainian citizens continue to leave and do not return. Some Ukrainians migrate to non-European countries, such as the United States, Canada, or Israel. It is also possible that the count of Ukrainian IDPs abroad becomes more difficult, in particular due to the abolition of benefits in host countries.
Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
According to Ukrainian legislation, internally displaced persons are people who were forced to leave or abandon their place of residence as a result of or in order to avoid the negative consequences of an armed conflict, temporary occupation, massive violence, human rights violations, and natural or man-made emergencies.
The Ministry of Social Policy, in response to the request of the Civil Network OPORA, reported that as of June 9, 2023, 4,871,807 people have been registered as internally displaced persons in Ukraine. 60% of them are women, and 40% are men. The full-scale invasion forced 700 people aged 100 or more to leave their homes.
Table. Sex and age structure of Ukrainian IDPs, according to the Ministry of Social Policy
|
Age |
Women |
Men |
|
Age not recorded |
145 |
118 |
|
Up to 10 years |
273,486 |
289,654 |
|
10-17 |
238,699 |
249,849 |
|
18-24 |
183,877 |
147,434 |
|
25-34 |
374,286 |
213,250 |
|
35-44 |
467,573 |
261,430 |
|
45–54 |
326,129 |
199,687 |
|
55-65 |
356,101 |
247,337 |
|
65-79 |
522,147 |
286,331 |
|
80–99 |
171,363 |
62,208 |
|
100 years or more |
580 |
123 |
If we compare the dynamics, then over the past six months the number of IDPs has roughly changed, having decreased by only 21,000 people.
It should be highlighted that the Ministry of Social Policy operates the data only on those people who received an IDP registration certificate. In other words, people who, for various reasons, did not register the status are not taken into account in the Table.
Key Findings and Trends
- According to various estimates, before the full-scale invasion, 37.3 to 43.8 million people used to live on the territory of Ukraine. As of February 1, 2022, the State Statistics Service estimated the number of the available population (excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) at 41.1 million people. The calculation based on data from mobile operators showed approximately the same number. However, in December 2019, the government estimated the number of residents of Ukraine (excluding those who permanently live in the occupied territories) at 37.3 million people. That is why the likely number of the population of Ukraine before a full-scale war may be under 40 million people.
- Even by the most modest estimates, from 1991 to February 24, 2022, the population of Ukraine decreased by more than 8 million people.
- The annual decline in the population of Ukraine, even before the full-scale Russian invasion, was, according to the State Statistics Service, more than 420,000 people.
- According to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, as of June 21, 2023, 8,177 mln Ukrainian citizens were staying abroad — about 20% of the existing population of Ukraine before February 24, 2022. Almost half of Ukrainians stay in three countries only: Poland — 22%, Germany — 15% and the United States — 11%. Only 6% of Ukrainians abroad are on the consular register.
- As of June 26, 2023, UNHCR reported 5 million Ukrainian IDPs (excluding data provided by Russia and Belarus). However, this number is still colossal. Almost 2 million Ukrainian IDPs (40%) stay in two European countries — Germany and Poland. It should be highlighted that the UN Population Department at the Department of Economic and Social Affairs section estimates the population of Ukraine in 2023 at 36.74 million people. The number may well be realistic, although somewhat optimistic.
- From the information published by UNHCR, it can be assumed that since February 24 last year, about 6.29 million people have left Ukraine and have not returned. Since mid-October 2022, this number has been growing. Thus, if we do not take into account Russian and Belarusian data (because their reliability is doubtful), according to UNHCR estimates, from February 24, 2022 to June 26, 2023, 20.64 million departures from Ukraine and 14.34 million entries were recorded.
- According to the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service, the difference between the departures and entries of Ukrainians outside the country from February 24, 2022 to May 1, 2023 is negative, and amounts to 2,686 mln people. In April 2023, the negative migration balance increased by 31,000 crossings. This increase is insignificant compared to the truly massive departure in December 2022 — March 2023, when the negative balance increased by more than 1.8 million people. The reason may be related to the blackouts and massive Russian shelling.
- An important source of information about the current number of residents of Ukraine can be data from mobile operators. The Ukrainian government has already used this information to assess the available population in 2019. According to the NCEC, as of June 2023, there were 48.3 million active SIM cards in the mobile communication network of Ukraine. Since the report of the National Commission for the Regulation of Communications indicates that on average there are 143 SIM cards per 100 residents of Ukraine, it can be assumed that there are no more than 33.8 million residents on Ukraine’s territory. Using the same method of calculation, we can assume that the number of residents of Ukraine as of June 6, 2023, compared to December 31, 2021, decreased by more than 7 million people.
- Given the ban on traveling abroad, which applies to the vast majority of Ukrainian men aged 18–60, and taking into account the findings of the UN survey, where more than 85% of respondents are women, we can assume that the vast majority of Ukrainians out of the country are women and children under 18. Their integration into the societies of the countries of their temporary stay can subsequently lead to a significant outflow of the male population of Ukraine, such as for “family reunification”. At the moment, it is not known exactly how many men also want to emigrate, if they have such an opportunity.
- According to the UN survey (December 2022 — January 2023), 65% of respondents plan to return to Ukraine “one day” but only 12% planned to do so within the next 3 months. Therefore, it is likely that the return of Ukrainians home will require significant efforts of Ukraine and partner states to create favorable security, humanitarian and economic conditions.
- In addition to traveling abroad, Ukraine faced massive internal migration. According to the Ministry of Social Policy, the status of internally displaced persons is slightly less than 4.9 million people (60% — women, 40% — men). If we compare the dynamics, then over the past six months the number of IDPs has practically not changed, having decreased by only 21,000 people. It should also be noted that the full-scale Russian invasion forced 700 people aged 100 years or more to leave their homes.
This publication was prepared as part of the project “Civil Society For Ukraine’s Post-War Recovery and EU-Readiness” implemented with the financial support of the European Union. Its content is the sole responsibility of the Civil Network OPORA and does not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.