According to results of parallel vote tabulation conducted on the election day at the Presidential Election in Ukraine on March, 31, 2019, by Civil Network OPORA, Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Petro Poroshenko go to the second round. Their results are 30.1% and 15.7%, with the error of 0.7%.

OPORA delegated 1304 of trained and accredited PVT observers to the representative random sample of polling stations in all regions participating in presidential election.

On the basis of reports from 1296 out of 1304 observers, OPORA can state with 95% of confidence that when the CEC announces final results of the presidential election they might be as follows:

Candidate

Results

Error

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

30.1%

0.7%

Petro Poroshenko

15.7%

0.7%

Yulia Tymoshenko

13.3%

0.4%

Yuriy Boyko

11.5%

0.7%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

6.8%

0.4%

Ihor Smeshko

5.9%

0.3%

Oleh Liashko

5.5%

0.3%

Oleksandr Vilkul

4.1%

0.3%

Yuriy Tymoshenko

0.6%

0.1%

Total votes for all other candidates

5.1%

0.4%

Number of invalid ballots

1.3%

0.1%

1296 of 1304, 99.4% of polling stations, with 836,047 of votes

Parallel vote tabulation (PVT) is an efficient method applied by independent civic observers for systematic assessment on election day, including the vote tabulation at polling stations. PVT allows to independently verify official results announced by the Central Election Commission (CEC). PVT is made on the basis of reports of the specially trained observers who assess the quality of the process at polling stations. Unlike exit polls, PVT does not include surveys of citizens on the choices they made. In PVT, the count is made of the de facto number of votes cast to the polling station included into monitoring. The method is successfully used by CSOs to assess the process of voting on election day in many countries worldwide, including Bulgaria, Romania, and Georgia.

Chair of the Board of the Civil Network OPORA Olga Aivazovska provided a general assessment of the election day. “In general, we can summarize and state the fact that the election of the President of Ukraine took place in a competitive environment when the race between the candidates run largely within the acting law, and in compliance with basic international standards of organizing a democratic competitive and free election process to be followed by a fair vote count. Despite the polarization of media and political engagement of certain local self-government and national authorities locally, no electoral subject had any monopoly on communicating with voters. It is also confirmed by facts of due response to information on electoral fraud on the part of law-enforcement bodies. Besides, in our view, it was the first positive trend in preventing violation that could take place if society had not received information on plotting the fraud that failed to be fully implemented,” says Olga Aivazovska.

Analyst of the Civil Network OPORA Oleksandr Neberykut highlighted several trends related to the electoral process in general that were not manifested on election day but impacted the course of this election campaign. “These issues require further legal regulation, and also need changes in approaches and practices by electoral subjects, especially in the context of the forthcoming parliamentary elections. It is obvious that one of the key factors is the factor of the so-called budget administrative resource. It goes about the de facto allocation of some budget funds, such as under various programs, and also having certain candidates promise certain benefits at the expense of budget funds, such as the promise to raise some payments. Another problematic issue is about distinguishing between official functions performed by public officials and their participation in the election campaign, or joining some campaigning activities.The third trend is the shadow nature of funding election campaigns,” he underlines.

It must be stated that the CEC has 10 days to establish and announce official voting results and the second round that falls on April, 21. Thus, citizens will have only 5 days to complete the procedure of temporary change of voting place without changing the voting address – from the moment of announcing official results until April, 15, including.

Find full text of the statement of Civil Network OPORA on preliminary results of observation at presidential election in Ukraine on March, 31, 2019, here.

Note: OPORA observation is aimed at unbiased assessment of the process of preparing and conduct of election, at facilitation of fair and free election, and at fraud prevention. Since October, 2018, Civil Network OPORA has run a large-scale observation campaign over presidential election. From the moment of official launch of election campaign, 204 observers have been enrolled all over the country. On March, 31, 2019, and in case of the second round voting , they will be joined by over 1,500 observers more.They will also conduct the parallel vote tabulation (PVT) in order to obtain voting results much sooner than official results, and more precise than exit-polls. In addition, we are monitoring the use of budget resources for indirect campaigning, we train law-enforcement bodies on peculiarities of election process; we launched a network of public ombudsmen on voting rights protection for citizens; we made assessment for Ukraine’s compliance with recommendations of international missions on electoral reform; and we run awareness raising campaigns for voters.

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