Opora

On 6 November 2016, the early mayoral election campaign has started in Kryvyi Rih. Preparations for organization and conduct of elections, scheduled for 27 March, are made quite properly. However, the fact that some potential candidates started early campaigning is against the principle of equal opportunities for other participants of the election.

 

Within the monitoring campaign, OPORA conducted long-term and short-term observation of the special presidential election in every oblast. In 2014, the course of the election campaign from its official start to the announcement of winners will be analyzed by 190 long-term observers. More than two thousand short-term observers joined them on election day. On the basis of gathered data, OPORA has prepared 7 interim reports on commissions’ activities, nomination of candidates, campaigning, the use of administrative resources, vote count etc. Besides that, the organization has published results of the sample-based parallel vote tabulation (PVT or quick count), which is representative of the whole country and has a small margin of error compared to other types of research.  

 

On 14 and 15 June, OPORA's activists together with political correspondents, journalists, media managers and experts of the election law discussed the course and results of 2014 election campaign, challenges of the last year and current ones, as well as possible solutions for efficient activities of the public and community.

 

To conduct the research, we used the data from the Central Election Commission's website (section "election results"). We also used the programming language R for analytical processing. To create tables of summarized values by types of polling stations, we used the PLYR package. Graphics were created with the help of basic functions of the R.

 

In this article, we will consider a simple but informative method of studying the general structure of multidimensional data, searching for abnormal numbers and description of general trends. This method uses dispersion diagrams (correlation diagrams). This method depicts every point of researched sample, thus, it's quite demonstrative. One can easily see conglomeration of points (clouds, clusters), which have similar parameters. We applied this method to research the results of voting during special elections of the President of Ukraine. We used the programming language R for the analysis and creation of diagrams. The data, similarly to the previous researches, were taken from the site of the Central Election Commission of Ukraine. The primary sample includes only those precincts located in Ukraine. Overseas polling stations don't fit into the diagram data structure, as long as their turnout is much higher than on Ukrainian ones.

 

  After conduction of long-term observations during three last election campaigns, Civic Network OPORA in Dnipropetrovsk oblast can make a conclusion that members of precinct election commissions have poor knowledge about regulations on electoral process. During the last election of the President of Ukraine, candidates' headquarters were known of their legal nihilism in election procedures, election commissions badly organized the electoral process, and precinct election commissions implemented electoral procedures on unsatisfactory level.  

 

A criminal case was initiated against Mykhailo Kumok, who voted for him and his wife at the polling station #230725 during the presidential election in Melitopol on 25 May. 

 

  Petro Poroshenko has won in all election districts besides ED #178, centered in city of Chuhuiv (Kharkiv oblast). Mykhailo Dobkin has won there with 33.73%. Poroshenko goes second with 27.17%.

 

Gunmen of the "DPR" attacked the election commission #43 two times. On 22 May, during the first visit, terrorists took the equipment and documentation, during the second — personal things of commission members and Ruslan Kudriavtsev, the Head of DEC.

 

During the observation of the voting process and vote count, OPORA's observers reported mostly procedural violations in Ivano-Frankivsk oblast. However, the number and types of violations didn't threaten the organization of voting process, they were not widespread, and couldn't have influence on voting results. 

 
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